Why Illinois basketball must beat Iowa for March Madness hopes

The Illini are fresh off a brutal 110-67 loss to No. 3 Duke, marking their third consecutive defeat—all by double digits. The struggling unit suffered an ice-cold shooting performance at MSG, shooting just 2-26 (7.7%) from beyond the arc, including an abysmal 0-16 drought from deep in the first half. Of course, defensive efforts couldn’t outplay the poor shooting, resulting in Illinois’ 43-point blowout in the Big Apple.

The Current State of Illinois Basketball

Despite the Illini’s abundance of talent and early expectations for a deep NCAA tournament run, those dreams now seem like a distant memory. Illinois postseason chances are suddenly in question, which is undoubtedly a surprising turn of events for a team that was once seen as having possessed the tools to be a legitimate contender in the Big Ten.

However, Illness and injury have taken a considerable toll on the team, and the effects of this are evident in Illinois’ recent wildly disjointed play. Brad Underwood says the Illini have had one single “whole” practice, as a full unit, since their West Coast trip in early January. Certainly, all the moving parts are a recipe for disaster for a squad heavily reliant on young, inexperienced talent. With positional shifts and ongoing ailments, the Fighting Illini no longer resemble the team they once were in December.

All things considered, is Illinois Basketball still bound for the big dance? Or, have the unsteady Illini placed themselves on the bubble?

Feb 22, 2025. New York, NY, USA. Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images.

How “At Risk” Are Mach Madness Hopes For Illinois Basketball?

Could the Illini still make the tournament if they lose out? It’s certainly possible.

Despite their recent struggles, Illinois remains in the top 25 of the NET rankings at No. 23, with 6 Quad-1 victories under their belt so far. Team Rankings Bracketology currently gives Illinois a 99% chance of making the NCAA Tournament, projecting them to finish the season with 19 wins (currently at 17-11).

Mathematically, Illinois could lose out and still remain in the field of 64. Nevertheless, entering the tournament on the bubble, shouldering a massive losing streak, with no confidence, is less than ideal for this young team. Furthermore, picking up one or two more victories is crucial, making Tuesday’s matchup against the struggling Hawkeyes a must-win for Underwood and co.

Much Needed Momentum

Iowa (15-12 and 6-10 Big Ten) has really struggled as of late, winning just 3 of their last 11 matchups. They did, however, secure an 85-79 win over the Washington Huskies on Saturday–the same day Illinois suffered a blowout 43-point loss to Duke. So, there could be some fire behind Fran McAffrey’s team heading into Champaign.

With two ranked matchups ahead proceeding Iowa—against Michigan and Purdue— Illinois needs to build confidence in a hurry. A win vs Iowa could be massive, as it’s by far Illinois’ best shot at regaining their footing before the postseason. Basketball is a game of runs and the Illini have a solid opportunity to catch a second wind against the Hawkeyes. If they do, the Fighting Illini might ignite once again, and begin to play to their potential. A couple more Quad-1 victories, including Big Ten Tournament play, are up for grabs. The question remains, will the belief factor be there for Illinois?

Certainly, the Hawkeyes would love to play spoiler in Champaign.

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