Illinois Basketball Named Among 10 Programs Most Likely to Win First National Championship

For decades, Illinois basketball has lived with the same frustrating reality. The Illini have had the history, the fan base, the talent, and a few seasons that looked capable of ending with a national championship, but they have never actually finished the job. Now, one national writer believes that could finally change. 

In his latest piece for SB Nation, Mike Rutherford named Illinois one of the 10 men’s college basketball programs most likely to win its first national championship over the next decade. The other nine programs on Rutherford’s list are BYU, Purdue, Texas Tech, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Houston, Texas, St. John’s and Dayton.

That’s a pretty significant statement for a program that has spent much of the last two decades trying to get back to the level it reached in 2005. Illinois finally took that next step last season, reaching the Final Four for the first time since that 2005 team advanced all the way to the national championship game. Now, instead of wondering whether Brad Underwood can get the Illini back to the national stage, the question has changed: Can he get them over the final hurdle? 

Why Illinois?

Rutherford believes Illinois basketball has everything necessary to do it. “There is no team on this list that figures to start next season ranked higher than Illinois,” Rutherford wrote, pointing to the Illini’s status as a projected preseason top-five team despite David Mirkovic potentially missing time early in the season following offseason foot surgery. He also believes Illinois has what it takes to return to the Final Four for a second straight season.

But the 2026-27 season isn’t really the point of Rutherford’s argument. It’s the next 10 years. And that’s where things get particularly interesting for Illinois. The Illini aren’t being included because of one talented roster or one successful season. Rutherford sees a program that has built the type of foundation necessary to remain relevant in the current era of college basketball. Illinois has the financial resources, elite support, a strong basketball history, a recruiting location capable of attracting talent from across the country and internationally, and it plays in one of the nation’s premier conferences. And it has Underwood. “The program has money, it has elite support, it has history, it has elite location and conference affiliation, and it has a terrific head coach who appears to be in the prime years of his career,” Rutherford wrote.

The Illini have Brad Underwood

That might be the biggest reason for optimism. Underwood has already changed the expectations surrounding Illinois basketball. The program is no longer simply hoping to make the NCAA Tournament or sneak into the second weekend. The standard has become much higher. Illinois now expects to compete for Big Ten championships, make deep NCAA Tournament runs and attract players capable of helping it compete with the nation’s best programs. The Final Four run was the clearest evidence yet that Underwood has Illinois operating at that level, but it also created a new challenge. Getting to the Final Four is difficult. Winning a national championship is another level entirely.

Illinois knows that firsthand. The 2005 Illini came within one game of winning the program’s first national championship, but that remains the closest Illinois has ever come to cutting down the nets. Since then, there have been plenty of talented teams and plenty of March disappointments. That’s why Rutherford’s prediction is noteworthy. He isn’t saying Illinois is guaranteed to win a championship. College basketball is far too unpredictable for that. He’s saying that over a 10-year window, Illinois has established itself as one of the programs most likely to finally break through. And Rutherford didn’t exactly leave much room for debate about how he views the Illini’s chances. “There’s really not much else to say here,” he wrote. “No one would be shocked if the orange and blue won it all before 2036.