Dain Dainja: The Return and Review

On March 27th, Dain Dainja announced on his twitter page he would return for the 2023-24 season. In today’s college basketball world there’s never any guarantees, and coaches have to re-recruit their rosters every spring and summer. Perhaps the Illini benefitted from the NCAA emphasizing their enforcement of the one-time free transfer rule, meaning it would’ve been difficult for Dainja to receive a waiver. Whatever the reason, Dainja will look to build on a productive but inconsistent first year.

The Numbers

Dainja started the year off the bench. However, he was inserted into the starting lineup to jolt the slumping Illini after the Christmas break. After transferring from Baylor midway through the previous season, Dainja spent the majority of his time in Champaign getting into shape and getting used to playing basketball again after a series of injuries and conditioning issues at Baylor. It was clear from the start of the season that Dainja was going to be a productive player.

The Good

He opened the season with a 17-point game, a 20-point game and a 15-point game against buy game teams. He showed the ability to create offense for himself, as well as impact the offensive glass. Dainja operated mainly as a post up threat, utilizing his large frame and massive wingspan. He graded out in the 82nd percentile in the country at posting up per Synergy Sports. Dainja shot 63.6% from the field, the second most in the Big Ten for any player with more than 600 minutes played.

Illinois moving Dainja into the starting lineup wasn’t just for his offense, he also provided a team high 15.3% total rebounding rate, and 5.7% block rate. His ability to play center allowed the Illini to play a massive frontline of Dainja, Coleman Hawkins and Mayer. Illinois was 20th in the country in 2pt% defense, and was 2nd in the country in blocks per game. Dainja’s quick feet translate to the defensive end, and his wingspan allows him to overcome his relative lack of explosion off the floor.

The Bad

Despite his strong percentage from the field, Dainja struggled from the free throw line. He only shot 52.5% from the line. He also struggled with turnovers and had a team worst .33 assist to turnover ratio. However, as so much of his offense was self-created, the high turnover numbers make sense. When Dain got the ball, he looked to score every time. With their two leading scorers from last year leaving, Dainja will be asked upon to score more next year.

Dainja also labored down the stretch of the season, which also coincided with the Illini’s offense as a whole limping to the end. He took a hard fall against Minnesota in a congested stretch of games due to the COVID reschedule. I’m no body language doctor, but Dainja has a swagger to him that didn’t come out as much at the end of the year.

The Future

Improving on his free throw percentage and turnovers will be huge improvements for Dainja, but Illinois can also help him get easier buckets. With their two young guards, and the halfcourt mainly working through Terrence Shannon Jr and Matthew Mayer, there wasn’t really anyone able to get Dainja looks in the Pick and Roll. Just 7.6% of his possessions ended with him getting the ball on the roll to the basket according to Synergy. On those 23 possessions, Illinois scored 32 points, which is in the 93rd percentile nationally. With Illinois looking for a transfer guard, having someone who can force defenders to fight over the screen will get Dainja easy points and help him not force too much.

The Film

Post Scoring/Finishing

As mentioned above, Dainja is an incredibly skilled player around the basket. He can create shots comfortably with both hands:

Nice touch on both shots as well, the first one soft off the rim with his left hand and the second soft off the glass with his stronger right. I generally feel pretty good about his free throws long term because of touch like this. He consistently showed very strong touch out to even 10 feet with either hand. Honestly it sometimes feels like he settles for the left-handed hook because he’s so comfortable going to it.

He has a strong base and footwork, which allows him to gather and score through contact:

This combination of touch and power is how you get a guy shooting 60+% in the paint, and while he isn’t an explosive leaper, he gets off the floor pretty quick.

Like any great post scorer, Dainja also has a counter to his power moves. He loves to catch defenders leaning on him, and spinning quickly to the baseline from either block:

These are the traits of an elite post scorer, and it will be interesting to see how much the Illini lean into his creation at the center spot with portal entrants to come. This quick spin can get him into trouble, especially when teams started doubling him more often (more on that later) but it’s a very useful tool when he can get single coverage.

Facing the Basket

What makes Dainja a unique offensive profile is how he can handle the ball and attack facing the basket. This is a massive asset for defeating multiple coverages, as when you can face the basket it is harder to double. He shows advanced footwork, and his length allows him to go at even elite shot blockers:

This makes him someone it can be hard to completely ignore outside the paint defensively. With a head of steam, he can still score even if you know he’s coming. Dainja’s handle also allows him to operate in a couple different looks including dribble handoffs, which he can fake to the basket:

Even if he doesn’t fake it, his wide frame makes him a very good dribble handoff screener, another way you can punish defenders playing off him defensively. This ability facing the basket gives me hope for what he can be as a more expanded roll man in the Pick and Roll. Dainja may never be an elite lob threat, but he has good hands and feet, and can use the roll just to give himself deep post position if nothing else. Kofi Cockburn made a killing rolling to middle of the lane and sealing for the ball. He also has the processing speed and skill to play in the short roll, but Illinois had so few perimeter players that attracted two players off high screen and roll that we rarely saw it.

Playmaking

This is the part of Dainja’s offensive game that faces the most scrutiny. He has a high turnover rate and had a couple rough games against the double team down the stretch of the season, especially Northwestern. However, I don’t think he is a lost cause by any means. He’s shown the ability to diagnose and make good passes out of the double team, it’s just that like many young players, he can get caught in attack mode. When he is anticipating the double, he can punish it:

With Dain having his first full season of experience, his ability to feel and attack coverages should improve. Also, having more shooters will help make it tougher to throw multiple bodies down low. It’s yet to be seen how many others return, but any chemistry on cuts and timing that carry over from this year can’t hurt either.

In the preseason, Brad Underwood hinted at Dainja having the ability to bring the ball up. He didn’t do much of it at all, but in year two I wouldn’t mind seeing some of that. He is a very capable and confident ball handler, and a center starting the break is a great way to put the defense at an early disadvantage.

Next Year

There are two key areas of improvement for Dain from this year to next. First, rounding out his offensive game. Cutting down on turnovers and increasing free throw percentage could mean a jump to 12-15 points per game. I also think he has more in the bag with his jump shot. He will need to keep the main thing the main thing and continue to focus on dominating the paint, but a 10–15-foot faceup jump shot will make him even harder to guard. Second, improving his defensive nous in drop coverage.

He will always be a primarily drop big, as despite his quick feet he will still probably be 260+ pounds next year. I wouldn’t mind hearing he drops some more weight, but after already losing 30 pounds from his time at Baylor, he might be as limber as he gets. That’s by no means a bad thing either, as he was able to play every game this season and gave a lot of tough minutes. Having a big body to bang with the Big Ten behemoths will always be valuable.

Often, he got caught too deep in his drop, allowing a little too easy of a jump shot or floater. Other times he might get fooled by the timing of the guard as they get to the paint, but these are both things that are endemic to drop coverage. Kofi was a great drop big, and even he would give up a wide-open layup from time to time. He also had periods of really strong drop coverage, using his length and quick feet to disrupt the rhythm of the ballhandler. From the staff’s side, Dainja is someone I’d like to see involved in hedging or trapping the screen with his length. Last year after scrapping the switch everything I understand keeping it simple with drop. Now that he’s more experienced I’d like to see some variety.

Dainja returning is a big boon for the Illini. Even if just for continuity’s sake, Illinois should be looking to retain profiles like his. His fit around the rest of the roster is yet to be seen, but there’s a lot to build on from year one.