Did Illinois Basketball confirm their spot in March Madness?

Illinois basketball picked up a nice “get-right” win over the Iowa Hawkeyes, 81-61. It was a feel-good win for the Illini as they had lost three straight games and had just lost by a program-record, 43 points. Though it sounded hyperbolic, the game vs Iowa was really a must-win game for Illinois basketball. Heading into the stretch with two quad-one games with Michigan and Purdue, the Illini needed to add to their win column in a bad way.

With the Iowa win in hand, there is less pressure to win the games vs Michigan and Purdue and they can likely relax heading into the Big Ten Tournament. With 12 quadrant one and quadrant two victories, the Illini may have just confirmed their spot in the Big Dance.

A look at the numbers

One of the biggest indicators of NCAA tournament standings is a team’s record in games in the first two quadrants. According to the NET rankings, Illinois is 12-11 in games in quadrant one and two. They have no losses in quadrant three and quadrant four games. However, if the USC Trojans lose some more games, the loss at home to the Trojans may end up being a quadrant three loss. Despite this, having six quadrant one games should be just enough for the Illini who are 22nd in the NET rankings. For reference, the 2022-2023 team was 9-12 in the first two quadrants heading into March Madness.

For now, Illini fans should hope that Penn State, Iowa, and USC win their remaining games so that they remain in quadrant two games. If Ohio State can regain some momentum, the win over the Buckeyes at home could turn into a quadrant one victory. However, this is unlikely because the Buckeyes are currently 35th in the NET.

If all goes the Illini’s way, they should be dancing for a fifth (sixth if you count the COVID-19 cancellation) straight year.

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