Illinois basketball wants to avoid these matchups heading into March Madness

Illinois basketball inexcusably lost to the UCLA Bruins in an overtime game. In a game where Illinois got out to a 33-13 lead, they uncharacteristically relaxed, got away from their principles, and allowed UCLA to gain some momentum. To make matters worse, the Illini allowed Donovan Dent to go 94 feet for the game-winning layup with less than 5 seconds on the clock. This is not the first time that Illinois has lost a game it should have won. In fact, five of their six losses this season have been games they have had opportunities to seal in the final seconds. Time is ticking for this Illini team to figure out its late-game execution. At this point, however, it seems that Illinois will be who they are. Success in March is dictated by the matchup and the luck of the draw.

If the Illini want to maximize their potential and make a run in March, they will certainly need to be on the lookout for teams that have the following.

Speedy guards that can get out in transition

Jeremy Fears Jr. and Donovan Dent are two prime examples of guards who exploit the Illini’s biggest limitation. Simply put, the Illini are not athletic or quick enough to slow speedy guards who have the ability to get out and run. Even in the half-court, the Illini utilize a drop-coverage that smaller, quicker guards carve up. If the Illini decide to switch their ball-screen coverage, Tomislav Ivisic and David Mirkovic simply do not have the foot speed to neutralize the matchup. Additionally, Jake Davis and Ben Humrichous simply get beat off the dribble far too many times to relieve the Illini’s front court.

Jeremy Fears put up 26 points and 15 assists vs the Illini as he was able to snake drive every single drop coverage. Donovan Dent was shooting 17.4 percent from three heading into the game vs the Illini; however, Dent had the game-winning layup and dropped 14 points and 15 assists. Michigan will likely give Illinois trouble with the way they get out in transition as well.

In March, Illinois wants to avoid teams like Texas A&M, Louisville, and Arkansas. If the Illini get far, they definitely do not want to see Iowa State and Houston.

Teams with Stretch Bigs

Stretch bigs have given the Illini trouble and have been present in all of their losses this season. Michigan State’s Jaxon Kohler, Wisconsin’s Austin Rapp, and Aleksas Bieliauskas, UCLA’s Tyler Bilodeau, all gave Illinois issues. Eric Dailey Jr. was the sole reason that Illinois basketball got knocked out of rhythm and the catalyst behind erasing a 23-point Illini lead. The Illini’s defense is predicated on a forward on the strong side digging at the ball and forcing teams to take three-pointers and longer 2-point shots as opposed to getting to the rim. Eric Dailey, Xavier Booker, and Tyler Bilodeau all made Illinois pay for that.

The trio of Booker, Bilodeau, and Dailey Jr went 7-14 from the three-point line. Stretch bigs force the Illini bigs out onto the perimeter, which ultimately ruins their usual drop coverage. Additionally, Mirkovic and the Ivisic twins simply are not comfortable defending outside of the paint. Also, with Mirkovic and Ivisic on the perimeter, our rebounding prowess worsens certainly because Ivisic and Mirkovic are stellar at sealing and boxing out their man.

Success in March is all about matchups. Illinois basketball can certainly beat anyone in the country; however, in a one-game tournament vs the teams above, watchout.

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