Illinois Football vs. Duke Preview: Duke’s X-Factor, Nate Sheppard and More

Illinois Football and Duke are about 48 hours away from a sold-out showdown in Champaign, with coach Manny Diaz and the Blue Devils looking to avenge last season’s 45-19 blowout on their home turf. A year later, though, neither team looks exactly like the one that took the field in Durham.

Both programs return plenty of key production, while also having faced some significant turnover during the offseason. For Duke, that meant losing quarterback Darian Mensah and wide receiver Cooper Barkate to Miami, as well as some defensive stars like DB Chandler Rivers to the NFL. 

Of course, Illinois has dealt with its own major departures as well, which makes Saturday’s matchup a great early litmus test for both programs.

For Duke, that starts with transfer quarterback Walker Eget, who completed just 13 of 26 passes for 131 yards last week vs Tulane in their 17-3 season-opening victory. With Eget unable to get much going through the air, All-ACC running back Nate Sheppard carried the load with 35 carries for 227 yards and 2 touchdowns. That could be difficult against a Big Ten program like Illinois, particularly if the Illini’s very talented secondary forces Duke’s offense to become one-dimensional and lean heavily on the run game. 

The question remains if Bobby Hauck’s new 3-3-5 scheme can slow Sheppard down and force Eget to beat the Illini’s secondary through the air? 

Conor O’Neill of On3’s Devils Illustrated offered his perspective during the latest Armchair Illini podcast. (Illinois vs Duke Football Preview: What Illini Fans Need to Know About Duke). He breaks down Duke’s offensive situation and identifies his X-factor in the Blue Devils’ rematch vs Illinois. 

Duke’s X-Factor vs Illinois Football

Sheppard was heavily involved in Duke’s season opener, carrying the ball 38 times. While Diaz’s staff remains confident in their veteran back, O’Neill believes that workload could create some opportunities and issues for the Blue Devils.

“You know, they’re really confident in Nate Sheppard‘s ability to bounce back. But he did have 38 carries. That’s a lot of carries…. Even if it is a Game 1. And even if you did keep him really, really healthy in fall camp, it’s just a lot of touches.

I would guess we’ll see one of the freshman running backs. So, it’d be really interesting to see a freshman running back take his first snaps in a 60,000-seat stadium that’s sold out, and a crazy atmosphere, I imagine. And you’ll see their backup, CJ Campbell, who’s been at, you know, Florida State, FAU, and Rutgers. It’s not like he’s coming from D3, where he’s played in front of 2,000 people. But they’re probably going to need somebody other than Nate Shepard in the running back room, I would imagine, to make a play or two.”

For Duke, finding that second option will be key. Against an Illinois defense capable of creating problems in the passing game, the Blue Devils need a rushing attack that can stay productive without putting everything on one back. If FSU transfer CJ Campbell Jr. or one of Duke’s freshmen can provide that balance, it could give the Blue Devils a better chance if Illinois’ defense does wear Sheppard down. 

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