Why Illinois Football will beat the Michigan State Spartans

Three Predictions For (6-3) Illinois Football vs (4-5) MSU

Illinois Football takes on Jonathan Smith and the (4-5) MSU Spartans in Champaign on Saturday afternoon, eager to break their brutal two-game losing spell. A win against the Spartans would be a pivotal step toward solidifying the Illini’s chances at a premier bowl game, in addition to maximizing the potential to reach 9 regular season wins. In doing so, Illinois would have achieved its best record thus far of the Bret Bielema tenure, dating back to the Ron Zook era (Rose Bowl) in 2007.

Michigan State, meanwhile, faces mounting pressure as they fight to keep their bowl eligibility hopes alive. Following a lopsided 47-10 loss to Indiana, the Spartans have used their recent bye week to regroup and recover key players. A victory over Illinois could provide the spark needed to salvage their season.

As the Fighting Illini prepare for this critical matchup, here is why I believe Illinois will win.

Luke Altmyer Will Rebound

A huge stat line that jumps out to me for the Spartans defense, is having 0 sacks in the last 5 games. Of course, competition has certainly stiffened for Michigan State with the likes of Ohio State, Oregon, Iowa, Michigan, and most recently Indiana on the schedule. However, a sack ratio of 0 to 21 allowed in the past five games, is really bad for Sparty.

I foresee Barry Lunney Jr picking up the tempo of Illinois offense coming off of the bye, allowing for quarterback Luke Altmyer to get comfortable again, and have a game. The Illini QB has had a recent dip in production, but the Mississippi native feels confident he can get back to his early season form vs the Spartans.

According to Luke, a change of pace is what he needs to get going again. If the O-line can keep him clean (as they should) he may just get on a heater.

The Illini will get more than three sacks.

Michigan State’s offensive line has struggled significantly in 2024. The group has given up 21 sacks over their last five games, including seven in a crushing 47-10 loss to Indiana. This underwhelming O-line play has left sophomore quarterback Aidan Chiles vulnerable, leading to some erratic performances despite flashes of talent. Chiles has thrown 11 interceptions this season and suffered several untimely forced fumbles.

Coming off a bye week, Illinois’ defense must step up its aggression. After being dominated in the trenches for two consecutive games, there’s hope for a noticeable improvement in pressure. Aaron Henry’s defense has a prime opportunity to capitalize on MSU’s struggling offensive line, creating momentum for the unit as they head into a critical final three-game stretch.

I want to see Henry’s defense pin their ears back and force Chiles into risky passing situations. Look for the Illini to do so, and get home on 3+ occasions.

Aug 29, 2024; Credit: Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Illinois Football will win by double digits.

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Illinois 31 – Michigan State 20

Oct 19, 2024 Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

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