Could Illinois Football Pull an Upset over 7th Ranked Ohio State?

Sometimes there are certain games where, depending on circumstances, normal expectations go right out the window. For Illinois Football, that would be Saturday’s trip to Columbus.

The Illini will walk into the Horseshoe as 27.5-point underdogs against a No. 7 Ohio State team that will look to prove a point to kick off Big Ten play. The Buckeyes have come out swinging early in the non-conference stretch, scoring 56 points against Ball State (56-3) and 59 against Kent State (59-3). Overall, great defensive performances, which allowed QB Julian Sayin, RB Bo Jackson, and potential no. 1 pick Jeremiah Smith to thrive, along with the rest of the Buckeyes’ high-powered offense. 

However, a 24-23 Week 2 loss in Austin to No. 4 Texas was a major early blow. Especially after Ohio State jumped out to a quick 23-3 lead. Julian Sayin’s inconsistent performance (17/32, 1 TD, 1 INT), stalled red-zone trips, and defensive breakdowns gave the Longhorns an opportunity to fight their way back into the game and close it out. Ultimately, this does put much more pressure on the Buckeyes moving forward, as they look to keep their 2026 College Football Playoff and National Championship aspirations alive. 

Now, Illinois gets to face coach Ryan Day‘s squad, looking to prove a point, on the road to open conference play.

On paper, it is a massive challenge. That said, this is also Ohio State’s first conference game since that loss to Texas, giving the Buckeyes their own test as they look to respond against their first Big Ten opponent

Quick Note: The Time Illinois Pulled Off an Upset in Columbus

In 2007, Coach Ron Zook brought the Illini into Columbus against a No. 1 Ohio State team and walked out with one of the biggest wins in program history. It’s been nearly two decades since that historic upset, and the Illini have not beaten the Buckeyes since. Despite the odds, this Illinois team will be hungry for a chance to pull off another shocker in Columbus.

What will they have to do to make it happen?

Come Out Swinging and Keep Ohio State From Getting Comfortable. 

The first priority for Illinois is to avoid allowing Ohio State to take control before the Illini have a chance to settle in. Bret Bielema’s squad does not necessarily need to jump out to an early lead, but in addition to hunting for stops and red-zone stalls defensively, Illinois offense must produce enough offensively to keep the Buckeyes within reach.

Barry Lunney Jr’s unit has proven through three games that they can move the football well through the air. Katin Houser is settling into his role and creating a strong connection with senior WR Collin Dixon. Dixon already has 25 catches for 367 yards and 7 touchdowns, while Houser has thrown for 758 yards and 8 touchdowns.

Ohio State will obviously know where Dixon is on the field, making Illinois’ ability to stay balanced very important.

The Illini’s rushing attack needs enough production on the ground to keep the Buckeyes from selling out on Houser and Dixon.</strong> Time of possession is key, and Illinois’ ground game is going to have to keep up with the likes of Bo Jackson to control the clock. 

If Illinois can stay ahead of the chains, create a few explosive plays, and turn promising drives into points, they can keep Ohio State from settling into the type of rhythm that makes this matchup extremely difficult. Texas showed that Ohio State can be pushed when an opponent continues to make plays and refuses to quit in the red zone.

Of course, Illinois is obviously facing a completely different situation and set of circumstances. However, the formula will be similar. 

The Illini’s Rushing Attack Must Arrive and Find Consistency. Despite Injuries…

That puts plenty of attention on Illinois’ up-and-down rushing attack and the offensive line. The Illini have been inconsistent on the ground through three games, and the situation along the offensive line remains unsettled after losing TJ McMillen for the season. Meanwhile, Brandon Henderson, Maika Matelau, and Dezmond Schuster continue working their way back into the fold as well.

Illinois does not need to rush for 200-plus yards Saturday. However, the unit must produce on the ground to stay out of obvious passing situations. If the Illini consistently put Houser in third-and-long, Matt Patricia‘s defense can allow guys like Kenyatta Jackson Jr. to pin their ears back and increase the chances of sacks, hurried throws, and turnovers. Staying ahead of the chains and keeping the offense balanced will be critical to preventing the Buckeyes from dictating this game.

That also makes controlling the clock so important. The less time Ohio State has the ball, the fewer opportunities they have to allow Jeremiah Smith, Bo Jackson, and others to create explosive plays.

If Illinois can run the football well enough to extend drives, stay out of obvious passing situations, and keep Bobby Hauck’s defense fresh, there’s a chance they can give themselves more opportunities.

Illinois Football. Ca’Lil Valentine. No. 5. Photo Credit. Vincent Bruington. Armchair Illini. Music City Bowl. Vs. Tennesee. 2025.

Illinois Most Talented Position Group Will Have to Ball Out 

The other side of the equation is Illinois defense. Particularly a defensive backfield that arguably is the team’s deepest unit on the roster. 

Future NFL talent like Xavier Scott and Matthew Bailey lead a talented secondary that faces its biggest challenge of the season with an Ohio State receiving corps that is loaded with future pros. After a pretty quiet first 3 games, this is a matchup where Illinois’ most talented unit will have to step up and play to its potential.

Possible No. 1 overall pick Jeremiah Smith will be the most dangerous offensive weapon Illinois faces all season. Plus, the Buckeyes also have enough talent around him that the Illini must stay true. Sayin has shown he can distribute the football well, and RB Bo Jackson gives Ohio State another route to keeping Illinois true.

That said, Coach Ronnie Bradford’s defensive backfield will be pushed to their limits. 

The unit’s goal can’t be to shut the Buckeyes down. Instead, they must limit explosive plays, force Ohio State to sustain long drives, and capitalize in the red zone. Areas this Buckeyes squad struggled late against Texas.

Matthew Bailey’s 88-yard pick-six against SIU was a great swing of momentum in the right direction. Still, Illinois will need more big-play moments against a far more talented opponent if they want to pull off the miracle. That pressure falls on Scott and the rest of the secondary, but it also starts up front.

If this talented Illinois secondary can make Sayin work through his progressions and potentially create turnovers, and limit the big plays, they’ll give their team a shot in Columbus.

Win the Turnover Battle

This one is pretty simple. If Illinois Football wants to pull off an upset in Columbus, they probably cannot afford to lose the turnover battle. Ohio State has way too much offensive firepower.

The Illini defense has shown it can force takeaways, with Matthew Bailey’s pick-six against Southern Illinois and LB Ismael Kante’s 59-yard pick-six against UAB. Against a team of this caliber, an interception, forced fumble, or strip-sack can make a major impact. Giving Katin Houser and the offense a short field could also take pressure off the Illinois offense.

In a game where Illinois will need to maximize every possession, creating a few extra opportunities could be the difference between simply keeping the game close and giving itself a legitimate chance to pull off the upset.

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