Illinois Basketball: Three looming questions heading into 2026

Illinois Basketball finishes the 2025 portion of their season 10-3 after a dominant win at home over Southern. Dating back to last season, the Illini finish the calendar year of 2025, 23-13. Just two years removed from their run to the Elite Eight, there’s a lot riding on the 2026 year. Should Illinois underachieve and lose in the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament, fans are bound to become uneasy.

The 2025-2026 team has shown that they can compete with anyone. They beat a good Tennessee team on a neutral site, and withstood a strong Texas Tech team at home. However, their close loses vs Alabama, Nebraska and UCONN left fans wanting more from this very talented squad. Heading into 2026, we have three main questions that weigh heavy on the minds of Illini fans.

1) Does the offense stay hot?

Per Kenpom.com, as of December 30th, 2025, Illinois basketball is tied with Alabama for the second most efficient offense in the country. BartTorvik.com has the Illini as the fourth most efficient offense. Despite this, fans are aware that the Illini shoot a lot of three-point shots. Against Southern, Illinois shot 34 three-point attempts.

Relying on the three can be very volatile. As shown last year, you can beat just about anyone in the nation, but if cold you can find yourself heading home early against an opponent you should beat in March. With such a reliance on the three, can Illinois sustain this elite level of offense per the metrics?

2) Can the Frontcourt find consistency

Illinois has an exciting, skilled and towering frontcourt. Tomislav and Zvonimir Ivisic combined with David Mirkovic means a lot of skill, ability to shoot, pass, rebound and just overall excitement. However, consistency has been extremely difficult to come by for the trio. Tomislav Ivisic came into the season with extremely high expectations and has battled through offseason surgeries and a knee injury that was rather severe to start the season.

In the month of December, Tomislav averaged 10.2 points and 4.8 rebounds on 43.9% from the field and 34.8% from the three point line. After logging 22 points and 9 rebounds vs Ohio State, Mirkovic played 23 minutes vs Nebraska and recorded 4 points and 2 rebounds. 

Zvonimir Ivisic has been a sparkplug off the bench, but he has the skillset to be more than just that. When these three players are clicking, Illinois is essentially unbeatable.

3) Just what lies ahead for Keaton Wagler’s future?

Keaton Wagler has become the talk of the town amongst national analysts and NBA draft experts. In the next few months, Keaton’s play will tell a lot into the future for Illinois basketball. Keaton has slowly become the head of the snake here at Illinois. When Wagler is on, the Illini can play with anyone. However, teams are going to start scouting for Wagler and will certainly go after his very few weaknesses in his game. Can Wagler continue his stellar play?

The data says yes, and if so, Keaton will be a first round NBA Draft pick with options. The best college basketball teams are teams that are able to bring back players who could be on NBA rosters (See Michigan this year and the Illini in 2023-2024 when they brought back Terrence Shannon Jr.)

The biggest riser of this draft cycle has been 6’6 Illinois Fr Keaton Wagler. From fringe top 150 recruit to projected 1 & Done, his ascent has been extraordinary. Below is my evaluation of Wagler so far and answer to whether or not he’s here to stay in the 2026 draft class! pic.twitter.com/Q3J00XUgPi

— Ahmed Jama (@slipthescreen) December 27, 2025

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