Why Illinois football will pull off an upset vs the Duke Blue Devils

Illinois Football is now less than 24 hours from….

That said, here are my three predictions for the Fighting Illini’s high-stakes road trip to Durham.

Sep 28. 2024. University Park. Pennsylvania, USA. Illinois Fighting Illini. head coach Bret Bielema. Penn State Nittany Lions. Beaver Stadium. Credit: Matthew O’Haren. Imagn Images.

2+ Sacks for Gabe Jacas

Duke quarterback Darian Mensah enters this matchup as one of the biggest storylines. The Tulane transfer was among the most sought-after names in last year’s portal after a breakout redshirt freshman season in 2024, where he threw for 2,723 yards and 22 touchdowns while adding 132 yards and a score on the ground. His dual-threat ability makes him a handful, but he’s at his best carving up defenses through the air.

After a record-setting Week 1 performance against Elon, Mensah now faces his first true Power Four challenge — the 11th-ranked Illini. Aaron Henry’s defense is going to heavily prioritize keeping the Duke gunslinger in check, aiming to create chaos and make life uncomfortable in the pocket.

That’s where All-American edge rusher Gabe Jacas comes in. The veteran linebacker is the heartbeat of Illinois’ front seven and has the ability to make a massive impact on the game. If Jacas and company — including Tomiwa Durojaiye and James Thompson — can consistently collapse the pocket, Mensah will be forced into uncomfortable decisions. I believe Jacas, in particular, is primed for a big day, and don’t be surprised if he leaves Durham with two or more sacks to his name.

2. One of the Scotts Comes Up With a Pick for the Illini Defense

After a huge Week 1 performance facing an in-state FCS program, Mensah will now be challenged by a secondary that has the experience and playmaking ability to disrupt the talented sophomore’s rhythm.

Both Xavier and Miles Scott are no strangers to creating turnovers, as the duo combined for 6 interceptions in 2024 (Xavier 4, Miles 2) — each recording a pick-six. Xavier Scott’s memorable INT to the house came in Week 2 of 2024, when the talented senior (a junior at the time) jumped a screen from one of the nation’s best quarterbacks, Kansas’ Jalon Daniels, and returned it 30 yards for a touchdown. The play sent a sold-out Memorial Stadium into a frenzy and helped propel Illinois to a 23-17 victory, setting the tone for the rest of the Illini’s historic 2024 season.

The Scotts are proven gamers with the veteran experience to find Mensah’s soft spots and make a play when the opportunity arises. As the saying goes, “big-time players make big-time plays in big-time games,” and this matchup is exactly that. In a potentially tight one on the road, turnovers could be crucial — and I believe one of the Scotts will come up with a crucial interception.

3. Illinois Football Wins a Big One on the Road

Manny Diaz has momentum building in Durham, and Duke has the pieces to make this a dangerous early road trip with some early-season rust still potentially in play. Even so, I trust Illinois’ veteran experience and Big Ten physicality to take control when it matters most, leading the Illini to a big Week 2 road win and keeping the positive national buzz rolling for Bret Bielema’s squad.

If the Illini close this one, I’d expect more sellouts soon.

Prediction: Illinois 27 – Duke 17

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