How Illinois Football can topple the Oregon Ducks

If the Fighting Illini manage to pull off the upset vs number one Oregon, it would mark the program’s biggest victory in over a decade, dating back to their stunning 2007 win over No. 1 Ohio State. That 28-21 victory in Columbus remains a defining moment in Illinois football history and represents their only win over a No. 1 team since 1956.

The Ducks enter as a 22-point favorite at home, according to ESPN. Furthermore, Autzen Stadium is set to host an electric environment, with a sellout crowd of 54,000 eager to help Oregon defend its No. 1 status.

The Fighting Illini are riding high after a massive home victory over Michigan. However, playing Oregon in Eugene brings a unique set of challenges. With this team fired up and fans dreaming of a college football playoff, could Illinois pull off another upset, and control their own destiny?

Nov 10, 2007;  Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

What Illinois should avoid

The Ducks protect their home field. Under Dan Lanning, the Ducks are 16-1.

If the Illini were to give the Ducks a comfortable early lead, this game is going to get out of hand. Oregon’s explosive offense, led by quarterback Dillon Gabriel, currently averages 34.9 points per game. They have scored a total of 31 touchdowns to date.

Despite a dominant performance in the trenches vs Michigan, inconsistency has loomed over the Illini’s offensive and defensive lines. If the defensive front cannot generate pressure and Gabriel stays well-protected, the Ducks will coast. Dillon is a Heisman Candidate, and if he’s comfortable, there are few, if any, more dangerous at tearing defenses apart.

Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel  Oct. 12, 2024.

What Illinois needs to do

Illinois Football must fight to build momentum and give themselves a chance late. The vibe in Eugene is certainly going to feel different if the Illini can keep it close down the stretch.

Illinois must find a way to force the Ducks into 3rd and long situations. Thus far, Oregon has a 48.8% 3rd down conversion rate, which certainly is not great for the nation’s best team. If the Illini’s front seven can perform at the level that they showcased against Michigan and maintain a strong presence against the Ducks, they have the potential to keep this game closer than most expect. A strong defensive front performance would allow the secondary to play more aggressively.

If Illinois wants to give themselves a shot in Eugene, they must make crucial stops on first and second down. The Fighting Illini needs a big game from Gabe Jacas, Seth Coleman, TeRah Edwards, and Dennis Briggs Jr.