Illinois Football: Three bold predictions vs the Duke Blue Devils

Illinois football kicked off its season with a 42-23 win over the UAB Blazers. The Illini are 1-0; Katin Houser got his first start under his belt; the offense showed plenty of explosive-play ability, and Illinois found a way to put away UAB despite some legitimate concerns. It could be worse. Just ask Michigan or Rutgers. 

Illinois didn’t play a perfect game, but nobody is handing out style points in September. The important thing is that Bret Bielema’s team got the win and now gets a week to clean up the things that weren’t good enough.

And there are plenty of things to clean up before Duke comes to Champaign. UAB ran for 194 yards, ran 79 plays compared to Illinois’ 43, and held possession for 41:03. The biggest issue, though, was tackling. Illinois defenders were around the football plenty of times but didn’t consistently finish plays, and that becomes a much bigger problem against a Duke team that just watched Nate Sheppard run for a career-high 227 yards and two touchdowns in a 17-3 victory over Tulane.

That’s what makes Saturday’s game so interesting. Both teams are 1-0, but they got there in very different ways. Illinois scored 42 points and showed it can hit explosive plays. Duke won a much more physical, low-scoring game against Tulane, leaning heavily on Sheppard while its defense held the Green Wave to three points. Duke quarterback Walker Eget completed just 13 of 26 passes for 131 yards, so the Blue Devils clearly weren’t winning through the air.

In other words, this could come down to whether Illinois can make Duke play the game it doesn’t want to play. Here are three bold predictions for Saturday.

1. Illinois’ defense scores a touchdown — and the tackling improves

This is the biggest one for me. Illinois doesn’t need to reinvent its defense this week; it needs to execute it better. Bobby Hauck’s aggressive 3-3-5 showed flashes against UAB, but the Illini have to tackle. That’s especially true against Sheppard, who just carried the ball 35 times for 227 yards against Tulane. You can’t give a player like that second chances in the open field and expect to survive.

I expect Illinois to make tackling a major point of emphasis this week, and I expect the defense to respond. The Illini should be able to create some problems for Duke’s passing game, particularly if Hauck can consistently get pressure on Eget and force him to make decisions under duress. My bold prediction: Illinois forces at least two turnovers, and one of them turns into a defensive touchdown. The defense doesn’t need to suddenly become dominant for four quarters. It needs to get off the field, tackle better, and capitalize when Duke gives it an opportunity. If Illinois does those three things, the defense could go from the biggest concern coming out of Week 1 to one of the reasons the Illini win Week 2.

2. Aidan Laughery leads Illinois in rushing

Illinois Football is going to need to run the football Saturday. Duke’s defense just showed it can make an opponent work for every yard, and Illinois shouldn’t want to put the entire game on Houser’s shoulders. The best way to take some of the pressure off the passing game is to establish the run, stay ahead of the chains, and force Duke to respect what is happening in the backfield.

That’s where I think Aidan Laughery becomes important. Illinois has multiple backs capable of contributing, but I think Laughery gets the opportunity to be the guy who consistently moves the chains. My prediction: Laughery leads Illinois in rushing, tops 80 yards, and finds the end zone. He doesn’t need 25 carries to do it. If Illinois can get him and the rest of the running game going early, it should make Duke’s defense less comfortable bringing pressure and give Illinois more opportunities for the explosive plays that were such a big part of the UAB victory.

3. Special teams come up big

The third prediction is probably the easiest to overlook, but these are the types of games where special teams can quietly become the difference. Illinois already showed against UAB that it has the ability to flip the field in a hurry, with Mac Resetich’s 65-yard punt return providing a huge spark. Against Duke, I think another special-teams play swings momentum at a critical point.

It could be a big return, a punt that pins Duke deep, a field goal in a key situation, or even a blocked kick. My prediction is that Illinois gets a major special-teams play that directly contributes to the victory. This game has the makings of a physical, competitive matchup, and when two teams are trading possessions, field position becomes incredibly important. One short field could be the difference between a touchdown and a field goal — or between Duke walking away with points and Illinois’ defense getting off the field.

The final prediction

I don’t think we’re getting another 45-19 Illinois-Duke game. Last year’s matchup was a completely different game, and Duke has since gone on to win the ACC. This Blue Devils team looks like it wants to play a physical brand of football, and its 17-3 win over Tulane was a pretty good example of that. Sheppard carried the offense, the defense did its job, and Duke never needed to turn the game into a track meet.

Illinois, meanwhile, showed against UAB that it can score in bunches, but it also showed that it has some work to do defensively. That’s why I think Week 1 could ultimately be helpful. The Illini got the win, but they also got a very clear list of things they need to fix. Tackling is at the top of it. If Illinois can clean that up, make Duke one-dimensional and let its offense create some of those explosive plays, I like the Illini’s chances at home.

Prediction: Illinois 30, Duke 24.

The defense takes a step forward, Laughery provides the balance Illinois needs, and special teams delivers one of those plays that we’ll be talking about after the game. And suddenly, that 42-23 win over UAB doesn’t look quite so ugly anymore.

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