How Illinois Football can get back on track vs Michigan State

What Could Go Right (Or Wrong) For Illinois Football

Illinois Football and the Michigan State Spartans will both look to end two-game losing streaks when they clash in Champaign. The Illini (6-3) enter as 3-point favorites, needing a win to stay in contention for a high-profile bowl game, and to keep on course for a  9+ win season, for the first time since 2007. A victory over a talented, but struggling MSU team would certainly boost the Fighting Illini’s chances of getting back on their feet, following two sloppy losses.

For Jonathan Smith’s Spartans, the stakes are just as high. At 4-5, Michigan State needs wins to keep their bowl eligibility hopes alive. The talented, yet struggling squad was banged up following a 47-10 loss to Indiana. However, a bye week was key for MSU to get some of their missing talent back on the field.

That said, which version of the Spartans will step onto Zuppke Field on Saturday afternoon? The same can be said of the Illini, who are down LB Dylan Rosiek (Leg fracture – OUT) and Miles Scott (for just the first half), who was ejected vs. Minnesota for targeting.

Oct 12, 2024;  Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

What the Illini must avoid

Luke Altmyer isn’t as much of a threat to Illinois losing, as he is a priority to have a bounce back. Overall, the Illini’s talented offensive leader has been one of the better quarterbacks in the Big Ten in 2024. However, recent games have shown a dip in his production.

Through nine games, Altmyer has posted 1,893 total yards for the Illini offense, going 157/250 (62.8%) with 16 touchdowns vs just 3 interceptions. So far, he’s earned a QBR of 66.2, ranking him 7th among Big Ten quarterbacks.

Additionally, he impressively completed 69% of his passes in the first five games of the season. However, in recent weeks, his completion rate has dropped to 54% over the past four matchups (since Purdue). Altmyer has also struggled with ball security, totaling 6 fumbles over 6 games.

Can the Illini QB find his footing, and help Illinois Football take care of business? If he’s on, the Illini are a dangerous team to beat. However, if Illinois gunslinger continues to slip, Sparty could sneak up on the favored Illini once again.

If I were a betting man, I’d say Barry Lunney Jr. is going to put Luke into more up-tempo situations, to help the talented passer find his groove once again, coming off a bye week.

Nov 2, 2024;  Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

What Illinois needs to take advantage of

The Illinois secondary needs to force takeaways, despite not having Miles Scott for the first half of the game (Targeting Ejection).

Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles has been heavily turnover-prone through the first nine games of the season. Chiles has given up 11 interceptions, and some crucial forced fumbles, compared to just 8 touchdowns.

Illinois defense got off to a hot start with takeaways in 2024, stacking 10 in the first 4 weeks of the season. However, in the Illini’s last 5 matchups, they have only been able to force 4 total, losing the margin in all but one game (Michigan). When the Illini (or any team with a decent offense) win in the turnover margin, they typically have a great shot to win on the field as well. Barry Lunney Jr’s offense can usually finish the job in this scenario.

Get pressure on Chiles, force him to make dangerous passes, and set up Altmyer and the Illini offense to succeed. If they can, the Illini will be back in the win column.

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