Illinois Basketball: Breaking Down the Path to the Sweet 16

Illinois Basketball has found themselves in the NCAA tournament for the fourth consecutive season. This time, they will be rolling in after winning the Big 10 Tournament on Sunday afternoon.

In 2021 and 2022, Illinois’ hopes at a deep run in the famous basketball tournament, were cut short due to tough second-round matchups – against Loyola-Chicago and Houston respectively. Those teams were filled with stars that also won Big 10 championships. So what does Illinois Basketball’s path to the second weekend look like this year?

Round 1 – Morehead State

NET: 106 (Rotowire)

KenPom: 111 (Draft Kings)

Morehead State, rankings-wise, shouldn’t give Illinois Basektball too many problems. However, there are a couple of things that may keep Illini fans up at night. They shoot 36% from three while making 9 attempts per game, and they hold opponents to around 60 points per game to their 76. Illinois will need to defend well to pull away from the Beakers early.

Round 2

BYU

NET: 12 (NCAA)

KenPom: 16 (KenPom)

Well, well, well. It looks to be another tough potential second-round matchup for Illinois Basketball. BYU is Top-20 in the NET and KenPom, posing a real threat to the elusive Sweet 16 appearance Brad Underwood has been hoping for. Compared to the 2022 Houston team and the 2021 Loyola-Chicago team though, Illinois might be feeling better. Houston was 2nd in the NET and 2nd in KenPom (how on earth were they a 5 seed???) and Loyola-Chicago was 10th in both the NET and KenPom. By those metrics, BYU would be the “easiest” second-round foe Illinois has faced since Brad Underwood took over as head coach.

The Cougars average just over 80 points a game, putting them in the top-25 in the country. They also shoot the three at an impressive clip – making just over 11 threes per game. This matchup could be a tough one for Illinois Basketball to navigate, as Illinois isn’t a great defensive team. Expect this potential matchup to finish in the 80s, maybe even the 90s.

Compared to the other 6 seeds…

Clemson – 35 (NET), 34 (KenPom) // Texas Tech – 28 (NET), 24 (KenPom) // South Carolina – 51 (NET), 49 (KenPom)

Yet again, Illinois by far and away drew the toughest second-round matchup, this time, among the 3 seeds. In fact, according to CBS Sports, BYU was supposed to be the 5 seed in the region but got bumped back to 6 to avoid playing on a Sunday.

Duquesne

NET: 83 (NCAA)

KenPom: 90 (BetMGM)

You would rather play them, I think.